wwp@yahoogroups.com:
Best of 2013 - The final WWP-Event?
CTR 2010-Dec-22 19:48:00
Caroling Geary?s posting on the publicity of WWP-events reminded me of some calculations I have done in autumn. There are 2 sets of data I have used.
1. From the event 03-2006 up to the event 09-2010 I have counted the number of participants. In Fig. 1 the x-axis ist he event-number, 1 for 03-2006 through 34 for 03-2013. As you can see the number of participants is constantly declining. There is an annual rhythm overlaid over this decline. I have done a quick linear regression on the data to plot a trend - red line. This trends suggests that the event ?Best of 2013" will be the last WWP-event with just 3 participants. I have to admit, that there are better mathematical ways (causing much more work) to modell the data. But then again the trend is so pretty obvious, that it is not worth the extra work on that.
2. For all the participants of the WWP from the very first event up to the event 09-2010 I have counted the number of times they have participated. So in Fig. 2 the x-axis shows the number of participations - and the y-axis shows how many persons fall into that group. Two reading examples: There are 11 people with 24 submissions and 2 people with 22 submissions. Just my first thought on this distribution: There is a group that I would like to call ?veterans" with 23 and more submission. In the categories 1 to 22 submissions the number of people randomizes between 1 and 5.
Conclusions? Well I think there is a clear message in the data. If the WWP goes on like it does at the moment, it is threatened by extinction. So I think Caroling Geary has a very strong point in her last posting. I would just like to second that with the above data.
Viele Gr??e
Carsten T. Rees
Fig.1: http://www.freiburg-panorama.de/wwp2/fig1.gif
Fig.2: http://www.freiburg-panorama.de/wwp2/fig2.gif